Ayr Western meeting

AYR TRENDS RATINGS

Ayr Silver Cup (page 203 of the book)

Points are awarded to each horse that fit the following trends (the official rating clue won’t apply this year in a quality renewal, so I’ve replaced it with a *top 10 placing last time and *draw clues from the chart):

Won over 6f -7f = 2pts
Ridden prominently or held up = 1pt
Won a handicap = 1pt
Won a race with 13 runners or more = 1pt
British or Irish-bred = 1pt
*Made the top 10 last time = 1pt
*Drawn 1-7 or 22-27 = ½pt
Raced at Ayr previously = ½pt
Trained by D Nicholls = ½pt

(Maximum score 8½)

Skhilling Spirit = 7½
Johannes = 6½
Pusey Street Lady = 7
Quest For Success = 7½
Fullandby = 7½
Roker Park = 7
Mister Hardy = 8
Invincible Force = 6
River Falcon = 7
Prescription = 6
Master Of Disguise = 4
Six Of Hearts = 7
Joseph Henry = 7½
Tajneed = 8
Aye Aye Digby = 7
Lowther = 6½
My Gacho = 6½
Horatio Carter = 7½
Thebes = 6½
Sea Of Loves = 2½
Protector = 5½
Sudden Impact = 7
Mastership = 7½
Cape Vale = 6½
Red Cape = 6½
Kaldoun Kingdom = 8
Green Manalishi = 7

TRENDS TOP THREE
Mister Hardy - Kaldoun Kingdom – Tajneed


Ayr Gold Cup (page 208 of the book)
Points are awarded to each horse that fits the following trends:

Ran during the last two months = 2pts
Ran at Doncaster, Goodwood or Haydock last time = 1pt
Four to six-year-old = 1pt
Won over 6f = 1pt
9st 3lb or lighter = 1pt
Won a maximum of three handicaps = 1pt
Colt or gelding = 1pt
Trained by D Nicholls = ½pt

(maximum of 8½pts)

Knot In Wood = 5
Garnica = 5½
Abbondanza = 5
Genki = 6
Barney McGrew = 5
Tombi = 7
Evens And Odds = 7½
Intrepid Jack = 6
Redford = 5
Zidane = 4
Brave Prospector = 8
Valery Borzov = 6½
Wi Dud = 6
Jimmy Styles = 8
Hogmaneigh = 4
Signor Peltro = 7
Madame Trop Vite = 2
Sonny Red = 7½
Arganil = 7
Blue Jack = 6
Advanced = 7
Striking Spirit = 8½
Magic Cat = 4
Hitchens = 7
Fol Hollow = 6
Everymanforhimself = 7
Mac Gille Eoin = 7

TRENDS TOP THREE:
Striking Spirit – Brave Prospector – Jimmy Styles


Top of the Form

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Tuesday 22 September:

3.40 Stratford, Olympian Boy
4.20 Folkestone, Tafaool
5.00 Beverley, Efidium

Here are numbers 11 to 20 from the chart which were missing from the RFO this week - they might look a bit strange as they are obviously in a different format but should make sense:

August 6 Bath 1m3f Handicap 1.Point Of Light 2.Blue Nymph 3.Sounds Of Jupiter 6 ran
Record of first three home: 4 wins from 4 runs – Point Of Light (2 wins), Sounds Of Jupiter (2 wins) = +7
Record of last three home: 0 win from 2 runs = -2
Total record: 4 wins from 6 runs (67%) for a profit of +£6 to £1 levels.
+5

August 7 Worcester 3m Handicap Hurdle 1.Chinara 2.Olmeto Collonges 3.Mith Hill 8 ran
Record of first four home: 1 win from 1 run – Little Shilling = +2
Record of last four home: 1 win from 2 runs – Raslan = +2
Total record: 2 wins from 3 runs (67%) for a profit of +£15 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +4

August 28 Newmarket 7f Maiden Stakes 1.Pollentaor 2.Boogie Diva 3.Qaraaba 12 ran
Record of first six home: 2 wins from 2 runs – Pollenator, Chain Of Office = +5
Record of last six home: 0 win from 1 run = -1
Total record: 2 wins from 3 runs (67%) for a profit of +£15 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +4

August 18 Brighton 7f Handicap 1.Cavendish Road 2.Fire King 3.Orangeleg 10 ran
Record of first five home: 3 wins from 6 runs – Valid Point (2 wins), Spring Secret = +6
Record of last five home: 0 win from 4 runs = -2
Total record: 3 wins from 10 runs (30%) for a profit of +£6 to £1 levels.
+4

August 26 Catterick 5f Handicap 1.Bonnie Prince Blue 2.Mr Wolf 3.Timber Treasure 9 ran
Record of first four home: 0 win from 4 runs = 0
Record of last five home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Hotham, Sea Salt = +4
Total record: 2 wins from 9 runs (22%) for a profit of +£9 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +4

August 22 Ripon 6f Yearling Stakes 1.Hold Your Colour 2.Exceedingly Bold 3.Sovereign Secure 12 ran
Record of first six home: 2 wins from 3 runs – Hold Your Colour, Ruthie Babe = +2
Record of last six home: 1 win from 1 run – Stef And Stelio = +1
Total record: 3 wins from 4 runs (75%) for a profit of +£15 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +3

August 20 Lingfield 1m2f Handicap 1.Some Sunny Day 2.Lunar River 3.Yvonne Evelyn 13 ran
Record of first six home: 2 wins from 6 runs – Some Sunny Day, Ebony Eyes = +1
Record of last seven home: 1 win from 3 runs – Chadwell Spring = +2
Total record: 3 wins from 9 runs (33%) for a profit of +£40 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +3

August 20 Epsom 1m4f Ladies’ Handicap 1.Epsom Salts 2.Lord Theo 3.Dramatic Solo 8 ran
Record of first four home: 2 wins from 5 runs – Epsom Salts, Lord Theo = +4
Record of last four home: 1 win from 4 runs – Sky Quest = -1
Total record: 3 wins from 9 runs (33%) for a profit of +£6 to £1 levels.
(NEW) +3

August 2 Newbury 6f Maiden Stakes 1.Quadrille 2.Chips O’toole 3.Mr Corby 8 ran
Record of first four home: 1 win from 5 runs – Quadrille = +2
Record of last four home: 1 win from 5 runs – Queen’s Grace = +1
Total record: 2 wins from 10 runs (20%) for a profit of +£43 to £1 levels.
+3

July 27 Yarmouth 2m Handicap 1.Baan 2.No Rules 3.Rose Bien 13 ran
Record of first six home: 3 wins from 8 runs – Baan, Rose Bien, Leyte Gulf = +4
Record of last seven home: 0 win from 7 runs = -1
Total record: 3 wins from 15 runs (20%) for a profit of +£14 to £1 levels.
+3

Finally, here are three form races currently outside the Top 20:

13 August Salisbury 1m6f handicap won by Saborido –
4 wins from 11 runs

14 August Newbury 7f maiden won by Pounced –
3 wins from 10 runs

20 August York St Leger Yearlig Stakes won by Midnight Martini –
3 wins from 11 runs

Performance ratings

May Hill Stakes – Pollenator 65
Park Hill Stakes – The Miniver Rose 65
Doncaster Cup – Askar Tau 75
Flying Childers Stakes – Sand Vixen 67
Champagne Stakes – Poet’s Voice 73
Park Stakes – Duff 74
Portland Handicap – Santo Padre 67
St Leger – Mastery 78
Irish St Leger – Alandi 79
Select Stakes – Mac Love 68
National Stakes – Kingsfort 76
Blandford Stakes – Chinese White 73

The quest to find a car is finally over as I left Tuesday’s auction with a 2006 Ford Focus, which should help me do battle with the winter weather on my journey to work.

There’s a strong chance of me producing trends ratings on here for both the Ayr Silver and Gold Cups on Friday as I’m not at the Guardian - some of you may remember the ratings found last year’s Silver winner, Against The Grain, at 20-1

Performance rating and Top of the Form

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Monday 14 September:

3.30 Leicester, World Time
3.40 Redcar, Beat The Shower
3.50 Musselburgh, King Of The Moors
4.50 Musselburgh, Distant Sun
5.10 Redcar, Angaric
5.30 Leicester, Shared Moment

Performance ratings

Sprint Cup – Regal Parade 80
September Stakes – Kirklees 79
Sirenia Stakes – Love Lockdown 65
Irish Champion Stakes – Sea The Stars 96
Matron Stakes – Rainbow View 75

Busy, busy, busy, which seems to be the norm these days – I’m currently trying to buy a new car as mine is on the way out. I unsuccessfully attended a car auction on Tuesday morning which was an experience - nice bacon rolls though - so I’m off on the Tour De Showrooms today to try and pick up something I can drive to work on Thursday; no Donny for Davey.

I’m also in the process of putting the new website together that will be launched in tandem with the new jumps season in late-October. This means a better service will be offered, allowing me quality time to list things like the Top of the Form races currently outside the Top 20, which I’m unable to do this week for instance.

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

SPRINT CUP, Haydock (page 185 of the Flat book)

Points are awarded for the following trends:
1pt = Raced during the past two months
1pt = Ran three times or more that season
1pt = Won in Pattern company
1pt = Three to five-year-old
1pt = Middle to high draw
½pt = Won over 6f
½pt = Officially rated 111 or higher
½pt = Trained by Roger Charlton, Tim Easterby or Barry Hills.

Al Qasi = 4½
Asset = 4
Corrybrough = 4½
Equiano = 4½
High Standing = 6
J J The Jet Plane = 5
Judd Street = 4½
Main Aim = 5
Regal Parade = 5½
Art Connoisseur = 6
Bushranger = 3
Finjaan = 4½
Sayif = 5
Fleeting Spirit = 5

Top three: Art Connoisseur – High Standing – Regal Parade

TOP OF THE FORM

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers from the new chart for Tuesday 8 September:

1.50 Sedgefield, Stormin Heart
2.35 Goodwood, Forethought
2.35 Goodwood, Tallawalla
2.35 Goodwood, Zahoo
3.45 Goodwood, Vale Of York
3.55 Lingfield, Dawson Creek
3.55 Lingfield, Count On Guest
4.55 Goodwood, Sarah Park
5.20 Sedgefield, Bijou Dan
5.30 Goodwood, Dens Gift


Here are several races currently outside the Top 20:

12 July Perth 2m1f handicap hurdle won by Guerilla -
6 wins from 18 runs

1 August Goodwood 7f maiden won by Yarra River -
2 wins from 5 runs

3 August Windsor 6f maiden won by Seeking Dubai -
3 wins from 12 runs

8 August Haydock 5f handicap won by Skylla -
4 wins from 8 runs

8 August Newmarket 7f maiden won by Eolith -
2 wins from 5 runs

8 August Newmarket 1m2f handicap won by Whispering Gallery -
2 wins from 3 runs

24 August Hamilton 1m5f handicap won by Terenzium -
3 wins from 5 runs

Performance ratings

Prestige Stakes - Sent From Heaven 60
Celebration Mile - Delegator 78
Winter Hill Stakes - Campanologist 76
Futurity Stakes - Cape Blanco 70
Moyglare Stud Stakes - Termagant 68
Supreme Stakes - Ordnance Row 74

The dates from the book have gone walkies of late with the Futurity Stakes actually taking place a week earlier than stated - not that much was missed with a 1-5 shot winning! The Supreme Stakes has also taken place instead of 8 September as marked in the book, but I hope some of you spotted the error in time.

Performance ratings

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Tuesday 1 September:

2.30 Ripon, Carpe Diem
2.40 Newton Abbot, Gracechurch
2.40 Newton Abbot, Attrapeur
3.00 Ripon, Silver In The Sand
3.00 Ripon, Iron Velvet
3.30 Ripon, Knights Victory
5.00 Ripon, Bright Sparky
5.00 Ripon, English Archer
5.00 Ripon, Mystified
5.00 Ripon, Leyte Gulf
5.00 Ripon, Rapid Desire

Performance ratings

Debutante Stakes – Lillie Langtry 67
Lonsdale Cup – Askar Tau 73
Great Voltigeur Stakes – Monitor Closely 76
Acomb Stakes – Elusive Pimpernel 69
International Stakes – Sea The Stars 93
Gimcrack Stakes – Showcasing 75
Ebor – Sesenta 65
Yorkshire Oaks – Dar Re Mi 77
Lowther Stakes – Lady Of the Desert 73
Nunthorpe Stakes – Borderlescott 79
Solario Stakes – Shakespearean 62

I was set to list the TOTF races currently outside the Top 20 but can’t find the piece of paper containing the list – we had a car boot sale earlier so may be someone got home with more than they paid for!

I’ve not been around on here much of late – apart from listing the daily TOTF qualifiers – as life is very hectic. From a work perspective I’m waiting to see how certain cards fall before knowing how things will pan out in the next few months.
For instance, I was recently asked to write a weekly sports betting preview for the Guardian website, something I now do each Tuesday following TOTF day for the RFO on Monday. By the way, anyone wanting to read the sports preview can visit:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sportingbet
(It goes up each Friday)

The reason I’m mentioning all this is because Chris recently left a comment enquiring about the next Racing Trends Revealed book for the jumps 2009/10. Well, all I can say at the moment is that it will be available, not in print, but online.

I’m looking to launch a new website for the start of the jumps season that I’m really excited about, which will offer a subscription package including Racing Trends Revealed, Top of the Form and other extras.

There will be further details in September, but launching the website with a subscription charge will allow me to dedicate myself into giving the kind of service I am currently unable to offer owing to a lack of time.

Anyway, for now, it’s all to look forward to so stay tuned for further details.

Still no broadband!

My broadband is still down so things will be flakey until Talktalk get their backside in gear - I'm told it might be back some time on Wednesday, we'll see.

Here are the belated qualifiers from the Top 20 for Wednesday 19 August:

2.50 York, Taajub
3.25 York, Siberian Tiger

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Rose of Lancaster Stakes – Jukebox Jury 80
Sweet Solera Stakes – Long Lashes 64

I attended Newmarket on Saturday for the Sweet Solera where my nine-month old daughter made her racecourse debut. It felt strange not entering the main grandstand, instead heading for the ‘garden enclosure’ where we pulled up two chairs and a blanket – good value for a fiver as we still got to see the big screen once the runners had passed us by, plus my daughter received a free ice cream voucher at the entrance.
One who ran at Newmarket on Saturday that I’m keeping an eye on is Musaalem, who finished last in the valuable 7f handicap.
This gelding clearly has a dislike for undulations and dips, which was confirmed by trainer Willie Haggas’ wife when he scored at Doncaster in July, stating: “He wants a sound surface and a flat track.”
His form away from flat tracks is a miserable 18th of 25, 5th of 10, 24th of 29 and now 15th of 15, following Saturday. He remains well handicapped and is one to watch for on a flat track like York or Doncaster.

TOP OF THE FORM

The Top 20 has been doing itself proud in recent weeks with Tuseday’s sole qualifier, Daison, making the frame at 50/1 – hope at least one of you had a few buttons each-way. The problem is when I do pat myself on the back regarding the good form of the Top 20, I end up jinxing things so let’s hope the curse hasn’t been cast on this occasion!

Here are several races that haven’t made the Top 20:

23 June Newton Abbot 2m1f novice chase won by Archie Boy –
3 wins from 8 runs

8 July Newmarket 1m2f maiden won by Blizzard Blues –
4 wins from 10 runs

10 July Ascot 6f maiden won by Trailblazing –
3 wins from 7 runs

11 July Chester 1m2f handicap won by Mick’s Dancer –
4 wins from 13 runs

18 July Haydock 1m handicap won by Kindest –
3 wins from 9 runs

20 July Yarmouth 6f maiden won by Syrian –
2 wins from 9 runs (Syrian looks very interesting)

22 July Catterick 6f handicap won by Neo’s Mate –
4 wins from 10 runs

26 July Carlisle 1m3f handicap won by Simonside –
3 wins from 6 runs

30 July Nottingham 1m handicap won by Kindest –
3 wins from 5 runs

1 August Goodwood 6f nursery won by Bluie –
2 wins from 3 runs

Performance ratings and Top of the Form

Keep an eye on the link opposite which will get underway soon - http://bettingbusiness.blogspot.com/

TOP OF THE FORM

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Tuesday 11 August:

4.15 Newton Abbot, Daison

One qualifier that appeared on the blog last week and deserves another chance is Mr Skipiton. Entered at Lingfield last Saturday evening, he was given a very poor ride in being taken down the centre of the straight track (slowest) before staying on into fourth.
Having recorded a career best prior, he is definitely better than this fourth placing, especially on better ground.

Here are several races that haven’t made the Top 20:

6 June Ascot 1m4f Hardwicke Stakes won by Bronze Cannon –
4 wins from 9 runs

25 June Hamilton 6f maiden won by Colonel Mark –
2 wins from 7 runs

3 July Doncaster 7f maiden won by Primaeval –
3 wins from 4 runs

7 July Wolverhampton 1m4f handicap won by The Last Alzao –
3 wins from 9 runs

10 July Ascot 6f maiden won by Trailblazing –
2 wins from 6 runs

12 July Stratford 2m novice hurdle won by Fongoli –
2 wins from 3 runs

21 July Ffos Las 1m2f handicap won by Hollow Green –
2 wins from 2 runs

26 July Carlisle 1m3f handicap won by Simonside –
3 wins from 4 runs

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Heritage Handicap (1m2f) – Drumfire 73
Gordon Stakes – Harbinger 77
Lennox Stakes – Finjaan 74
Molecomb Stakes – Monsieur Chevalier 66
Heritage Handicap (1m4f) – Classic Vintage 65
Vintage Stakes – Xtension 71
Sussex Stakes – Rip Van Winkle 90
Heritage Handicap (1m2f) – Roman Republic 68
King George Stakes – Kingsgate Native 79
Goodwood Cup – Schiaparelli 81
Totesport Mile – Laa Rayb 75
Richmond Stakes – Dick Turpin 68
Oak Tree Stakes – Summer Fete 63
Nassau Stakes – Midday 79
Stewards’ Cup – Genki 70

Top of the Form update

Performance ratings from Glorious Goodwood, along with races currently outside the Top 20 will appear on Wednesday.

Here are the qualifiers from the chart for Tuesday 4 August:

4.30 Newton Abbot, Present Oriented
4.50 Catterick, Monopole

Here are the qualifiers from the chart for Monday 3 August:

4.30 Newton Abbot, Crazy Eyes (WON 9/1)
5.45 Carlisle, Wednesdays Boy (lost)
7.30 Windsor, Kinsya (NR)
7.45 Carlisle, Smarty Socks (3rd 7/1)
8.45 Carlisle, Its A Mans World (WON 2/1)

I had the option of napping either Mujood or Marajaa at Goodwood on Tuesday as they finished third and fifth, respectively, in Dancourt's red-hot Newmarket race - No.14 in this week's chart - but opted for the former!
I originally went for Marajaa (honest) as he had the plum draw in stall 20, but opted for Mujood's course form instead...how annoying, that would've put me into second in the RFO naps table!!!!

Performance ratings

International Stakes – Al Muheer 71
King George VI Stakes – Conduit 88
Hong Kong Stakes – Judge ‘n Jury 68
Princess Margaret Stakes – Lady Of The Desert 63
Phoenix Stakes – Alfred Nobel 75

Top of the Form

In what is an extremely busy time for the Flat season with masses of meetings each week, not to mention Glorious Goodwood getting underway today, the list of races currently outside the Top 20 is huge – too much for any individual to plough through. Therefore, I’ve based the following list on quality rather quantity, highlighting just those races with a race rating of +4 – such events would normally make the chart in an average week.

11 June Nottingham 1m2f handicap won by Wake Me Now –
4 wins from 14 runs

27 June Windsor 1m handicap won by Flying Valentino –
2 wins from 5 runs

3 July Sandown 1m6f handicap won by Alanbrooke –
2 wins from 7 runs

4 July Haydock 1m4f handicap won by Barshiba –
2 wins from 2 runs

11 July Nottingham 6f handicap won by Bold Ring –
2 wins from 8 runs