Performance ratings, Top Of The Form & Flat review

With another Flat season completed, here are some of my highs and lows:

Highs

Getting off to a good start with the trends from the book working out especially well during the spring at meetings like the Craven.

Henrythenavigator taking the 2,000 Guineas, which put a big grin on my wife’s face at Newmarket after backing him at 10/1.

All The Good being a good example to the method of the book, in that he was an above-par winner of the re-routed Ebor – a race that has a four star rating – before scoring at big odds subsequently

The method of following certain placed runners from the four and five star events also worked out well in races like the Irish 2,000 Guineas, where New Approach took the Derby next time out at 5/1.

Against The Grain landing a touch for me in the Ayr Silver Cup – a race that has already been added to the second edition of the Flat book for 2009.

Making a breakthrough with my betting on cricket – a nice sideline away from racing.

The birth of Top Of The Form in the Racing and Football Outlook. I have plans for that column so watch that space.

My wife finally giving birth – OK it wasn’t the Flat season but the due date was!

Kind comments being left here from genuine horseracing fans, so thank you to the following who have supported the book:

Andrew, Julio, Kevo, Lemondash, Mike, Norman, Peter, Stegboy, Steve, Tom, Tony, Truebastion – apologies if I’ve missed anyone.


Lows

A mid-season lull in the book with trends at the Newmarket July meeting and Goodwood not working out too well. I was also in rotten form at the time and failed to hit the target from short-lists of three runners per race.

My ante-post record wasn’t great, but as with this type of betting, I was only a place away from showing a profit. Tajaaweed, Katiyra, Moonstone, Orpsie Boy, Prince Kalamoun and Mad Rush all the guilty suspects. I thought the latter pair were nailed on to be in the frame but weren’t even placed.

Orpsie Boy gets special attention! Some of you may snigger when I say this, but he never faced ideal conditions all season, namely a big field on fast ground – may be next year if his AW mark doesn’t ruin his turf one.

Biting off more than I could chew from a workload perspective – lesson learnt! After writing the second version of the Flat in January 2009, I finally get three months off!

It may sound corny, but I enjoy producing the book for those reading it, as much as I do for personal enjoyment or punting, and I really hope some of you made a profit from the races in the Flat book.

As you'll know by now, trends don’t work all the time – I wish they did – but are very rewarding when they do. The key is how they are interpreted. The perfect horse that fits every trend rarely emerges, so it’s a case of sticking with the trends you feel are strongest.
My personal method is to produce a short-list of runners that fit the majority of the trends and may be back three or four in the same race for a profit rather than siding with just one.

I’ve mentioned previously that the Racing Trends Revealed project is a long-term one, and one that will see both the book and website improve over the next three of four years – Rome wasn’t built in a day! Introductions such as the winner’s formline (112-23 etc), official rating and running style (already in the jumps book), and other categories like the winner’s official winning time, will all be added in time.

I’m very hopeful the size of the book will also increase in size for the second jumps version, so that I don’t have to cram all the information on one page, allowing the text to be bigger, which is a tad small in the current jumps version.


PERFORMANCE RATINGS for the past week:

Sharp Novices’ Hurdle – Golan Way 66

Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle – Simarian 59

Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase – Imperial Commander 81

Trophy Handicap Chase – Joe Lively 74

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle – Numide 67

November Novices’ Chase – Tatenen 74

Maplewood Hurdle – Hardy Eustace 77

There were some noteworthy performances at Cheltenham with Tatenen in particular impressing as a four-year-old in the November Novices’ Chase. The last winner from that age group went on to take the Henry VIII next time out, before a second in the Arkle.

A note regarding the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon that was due to be run this Saturday but is now to be staged on December 11 – that damn fixture list!

Another item of interest I stumpled across worth a mention are the replays on the Channel 4 website. From what I saw at the weekend, you can download a large selection of races from the previous seven days via the Racing Post website without paying, although that may soon change when the RP start charging a monthly rate - so make the most of it!

TOP OF THE FORM

Here the recent eyecatchers along with their entries from Wed Nov 19:

Apocal – Fourth at Bangor worked out well and could improve over 2m4f or further.

Art Trend (Saturday) – Third at Wincanton, Art Trend is worth following on those formlines after an unlucky landing next time when unseating.

Artzola – Two winners have emerged from this handicap on Sep 12 and this mare caught the eye running on into fifth.

Balzaccio – Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, Balzaccio could also win in that class or higher after an impressive victory next time.

Bramalea (Friday) - Sprint handicap from Wolverhampton three weeks ago in which three winners have already emerged from just four subsequent runners. What impresses though, is that two of the winners stepped up in class, including runner-up, Beetuna. Although the winner, Bramalea, lost next time out, she was drawn wide in stall 13 and deserves another chance – both her victories came when drawn on the inside.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters. Could be one for the winter as already boasts a victory on Polytrack.

Elton (Friday) – Handicap hurdle from Wincanton a fortnight ago won by Bally Conn, who has since scored along with the runner-up, Charles Street. Ten lengths back in third was Elton, who recorded a career best and is still lightly raced enough to improve.

Game Park - Intabih took a 1m1f at Wolverhampton last month with Beetuna back in fourth, who also won subsequently. In fifth was Game Park, who ran on after a troubled run and he can build on this.

Glasker Mill (Saturday) – Really caught the eye in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Imperial Skylight (Saturday) – Poorly drawn at Kempton where Rainbow Seeker scored since and was a good third drawn wide on Monday. Can win soon.

Lend A Grand – 1m handicap from Lingfield last month that has produced two winners who scored in a better grade since, including the winner, Prince Of Thebes. Back in fifth was the well-handicapped Lend A Grand, who did some good late work.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Mezzanisi - Southwell handicap over 1m4f won by Merchant Of Dubai, from which the victor and third have both found their way back to the winner’s enclosure. The runner-up, Mezzanisi, was unlucky not to get compensation next time at Leicester under Hayley Turner, who gets a good tune from him, but the pair can find a race soon in this form.

Notre Cyborg (Saturday) - Handicap Chase from Bangor-On-Dee where Laoch Dubh beat Notre Cyborg. The winner has since landed a better class event, while the third, Araldur, also took a similar race. Although the second, Notre Cyborg, lost next time out, he was outclassed and deserves another chance.

Pass The Port - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the third, Pass The Port, did well from behind. He has dropped to an attractive mark of 75 having won from 78 in May and 1m4f with a strong pace is his game.

Presentandcorrect - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Resounding Glory (Saturday) - Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, he could could own in Graded company.

Roaring Forte – Destroyed three subsequent winners at Great Leighs and not one to oppose.

Safari Run – Plenty of future winners surrounded her behind Breedsbreeze at Bangor.


Sarah’s Art (Wednesday & Thursday) – Caught the eye in second at Kempton, where the winner, fourth and fifth have already taken handicaps since. This was the gelding’s second outing since a break and he finished strongly here after fluffing the start. A winner over 6f and 7f off higher marks, he looks ready to rumble beyond 5f.

Spanish Conquest - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race, the fourth, Spanish Conquest, still looks to have a race in him.

The King Of Angels – Runner-up in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well.