Midweek trends, PR and TOTF

PERFORMANCE RATINGS

WINTER NOVICES’ HURDLE – Junior 68

HENRY VIII NOVICES’ CHASE – Araldur 77

LISTED HANDICAP HURDLE – Sunnyhillboy 63

TINGLE CREEK CHASE – Master Minded 92

The good thing about racing being abandoned or dates being switched is that it can provide some midweek highlights, such as this week where we are treated to a couple of Graded events.

The John Durkan Punchestown Chase that was due to be run on Sunday (page 43 of the book) has fortunately been rescheduled for Tuesday December 9, where a competitive 10-runner field lines up – the same as last year. The Irish authorities were very quick to rearrange this event – take note the BHA!

Also, the Peterborough Chase on page 30 of the book is to be staged on Thursday December 11, although it will be strange not seeing a Henrietta Knight entry in the race.

I’m currently having a few weeks off from the Guardian – bliss. Considering my commute is a two-hour drive (each-way), Monday morning felt good this week as I enjoyed my coffee while watching the frost melt outside.
If I get the chance on Thursday I’ll have a stab at the Peterborough Chase using the trends, but keep an eye on the Daily Dust website for any other bets.

Some of you may have shirked at me backing odds-on, but my aim is to make a long-term profit to SP during the winter – no easy feat – and I don’t have a problem backing short prices these days unlike when I was younger. So far the odds-on bets have done well with 10 winners from 13 bets, and obviously a high strike-rate needs to be maintained to show a profit at that end of the market.


TOP OF THE FORM

A better week for the Top 20 chart with several winners, although Fast Freddie was disappointing at Wolverhampton. He’ll probably pop up when granted a softer lead.

A couple of races that won’t make the chart that are worth browsing over are as follows:
Nov 16 Fontwell National Handicap Chase – Winner: Hello Bud
Nov 12 Bangor Novices’ Handicap Chase – Winner: Amble Forge
Nov 15 Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup – Winner: Imperial Commander
Nov 15 Great Leighs Nursery – Winner: Whatyouwoodwishfor

Here are the eyecatchers from recent weeks along with their five-day entries from Tuesday December 9:

After The Show - Sprint handicap from Kempton a fortnight ago won by Littledodayno has already churned out three winners. After The Show never got a clear run from a wide draw.

Alonso De Guzman – Was sandwiched between two future winners in second at Lingfield.

Arctic Magic – Form of Cheltenham third has worked out.

Balzaccio (Saturday) – Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, Balzaccio could also win in that class or higher after an impressive victory next time.

Bramalea - Sprint handicap from Wolverhampton in which three winners have already emerged from just four subsequent runners. What impresses though, is that two of the winners stepped up in class, including runner-up,

Beetuna. Although the winner, Bramalea, lost next time out, she was drawn wide in stall 13 and deserves another chance – both her victories came when drawn on the inside.

Brazilian Brush - Impressed in taking a claimer in a fast time last month. The change of tactics from the front worked that day as he took care of three subsequent winners directly in behind. Two of them have since won handicaps.

Cast Cada - Novices hurdle from Exeter in November won by Inchidaly Rock, who was a creditable runner-up in better class at the weekend, while directly behind were Junior and Giles Cross, who both scored since. The fourth, Cast Cada, was beaten next time when fluffing the final obstacle, but can land a race with stronger steering.


Duke Of Malfi - Three winners have already emerged from Hexham, including Frith and Silvo, who both took better class events, and the winner remains one to stick with having recorded a career best here on just his second chase outing.

Ever Cheerful - Sprint handicap from Kempton a fortnight ago won by Littledodayno has already churned out three winners. Runner-up, Ever Cheerful, hovers on a nice mark and enjoys an extra furlong at Lingfield.

Game Park - Intabih took a 1m1f at Wolverhampton last month with Beetuna back in fourth, who also won subsequently. In fifth was Game Park, who ran on after a troubled run and he can build on this.

Glasker Mill – Really caught the eye in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well and was unlucky when hampered next time.

Gloucester (Friday)– Good second in red-hot hurdle from Cheltenham, deserves another chance after being brought down on a return visit to Cheltenham last month.

Kaloni - The second debutant from the Essex venue is a 1m nursery won by Atabaas Allure five weeks ago. Only four runners have reappeared since, resulting in three winners, and the fifth, Kaloni, has middle-distance blood and is one to note up in trip.

King’s Forest - Ran a cracker on just his second outing at Cheltenham, a red-hot event.

Lochstar - Judge 'n Jury's victory at Ascot has worked out well. Back in fifth was the beautifully-bred Lochstar, who has already scored on Polytrack and is one be with if appearing this winter.

Mezzanisi - Southwell handicap over 1m4f won by Merchant Of Dubai, from which the victor and third have both found their way back to the winner’s enclosure. The runner-up, Mezzanisi, was unlucky not to get compensation next time at Leicester under Hayley Turner, who gets a good tune from him, but the pair can find a race soon in this form.

Nikos Extra - Form of Cheltenham fourth has worked out.

Pass The Port - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race and the third, Pass The Port, did well from behind. He has dropped to an attractive mark of 75 having won from 78 in May and 1m4f with a strong pace is his game.

Pennek (Friday) – Form of Cheltenham fifth has worked out.

Piscean - Great Leighs sprint handicap from late-October won by the progressive Arganil, who has since hacked up in better company. The runner-up, Piscean, did well to get within a neck having been drawn wide and is one to note back at Lingfield where his late run will count, as shown when scoring there last month.

Presentandcorrect (Friday) - A beginners' chase won by Ohana at Fontwell last month was franked by the third and fourth, making runner-up, Presentandcorrect, of interest. Making his debut for Carl Llewellyn here, this dual hurdler winner impressed over fences and can build on this next time.

Punchestowns - Impressed in beating subsequent winner, Ballydub, in a classy handicap hurdle at Cheltenham a month ago. Ballydub boosted the form by winning a better event, along with the tenth-placed, Lupanar, and the winner is certainly a hurdler going places,

Resounding Glory - Second in quality juvenile novices hurdle from Ludlow last month that has already seen the first two, Resounding Glory and Balzaccio, compliment each other by scoring in higher class. A few of those in behind were held on Sunday but with Resounding Glory taking a Listed event, he could own in Graded company.

Roaring Forte – Destroyed three subsequent winners at Great Leighs and not one to oppose.

Safari Run – Plenty of future winners surrounded her behind Breedsbreeze at Bangor.

Spanish Conquest - Staying handicap from Southwell two weeks ago in which both the winner, Keenes Day, and runner-up, Victory Quest, have already obliged. In what was a slowly-run race, the fourth, Spanish Conquest, still looks to have a race in him.

The King Of Angels (Fri & Sat) – Runner-up in Cheltenham race in which the top-half has worked out well.

Wotatomboy - Had two subsequent winners directly behind in a Southwell maiden in late-October. The winner enjoyed the step up to 6f here and is one to note if appearing in a nursery before the end of the year as she will be fairly treated having been rated 61 here with the third-placed, Trigger McCann rated 72.