Grand National ante-post bet

Taken from the book and Guardian website last week, these are the key trends for Aintree in April.

1. The biggest clue during the past 12 years involved the official handicap mark of the horse, which decides the weight it will carry. Since 1997, every winner was rated from 136 to 149, 11 of of whom carried 10st12lb or lighter. The cut-off point in the weights this year comes with last year's winner, Comply Or Die, and the ratings cut-off point is Big Fella Thanks on 149.
2. All 12 winners since 1997 had raced during the previous two months come April — 10 of whom made the top five last time out.
3. All 12 had won over at least three miles, and faced fences a minimum of 10 times.
4. 11 victors were aged eight to 11-years-old.
5. 11 were either winless or had just the single victory in their formline that season.
6. The last 11 were either British or Irish-bred — Lord Gyllene in 1997 was New Zealand-bred.

The horse that fits all the above who is carrying my money at this stage is Parson's Legacy.

Third in the Scottish National in 2007, this 11-year-old had a light time of things since, but showed his well being when landing a quality handicap chase at Cheltenham in October. He had the dual subsequent-winning Joe Lively over 11l back in third that day before being pulled up on a return visit in December when the ground was too muddy - Timeform described it as soft.
Good ground and a marathon trip is what this fellow is all about and he looks sure to enjoy the nature of the event if the ground is decent.
Odds of around 40-1 are available and I wouldn't put anyone off having a nibble before topping up come the hour.

Talking of Parson's Legacy Cheltenham form, my colleague, Chris Cook, went to a lively Cheltenham preview night in London on Thursday night and some interesting quotes can be viewed on his blog at
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2009/feb/20/horseracing-cheltenhamfestival

On a separate note, I thought I'd mention a horse that randomly caught my eye when watching racing at work this week which could pay to keep an eye on - Inka Dancer.

This seven-year-old is no world beater but has dropped to a winning mark and certainly looks ready to rumble after a troubled run on Tuesday at Wolves. He seems to have two ways of running - from the front over 7f, or from behind over 6f when outpaced. He is entered up on Tuesday (7f) and Wednesday (6f) but will hopefully run in the latter over 6f.

Happy punting to all over the weekend, where there are a further six trends races from the book to study, including the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell on Sunday.

I won't get to see any of the Kempton action as it's my daughter's christening on Saturday afternoon - still, the meal at the Greek restaurant afterwards will more than compensate!