There are no performance ratings this week as we switch codes to the Flat.
There are four races to kick off the Flat season in the new Racing Trends Revealed Flat 09 book, which hits book stands this week – the Cammidge Trophy, Lincoln, Rosebery and Magnolia Stakes. I may be around later in the week with my ‘trends notes’ for one of those races if I get time.
We then switch back to Aintree for Grand National weekend, before returning to the Flat action over Easter, along with the Craven meeting at Newmarket, which I’m hoping to attend for the second day.
ROSEBERY STAKES – 3.00 Kempton CH4
Grand Passion – Would have to be the oldest winner of this at nine and has too many career outings on the clock.
Cape Express – Misses out on a few trends, including likely SP and lack of experience, but, from the yard that won this last year with Philatelist who also defied the SP stat.
Big Robert – Lacks the all-important Class 2 to 4 handicap victory on his CV.
Robby Bobby – Good trends profile, but last two runs were disappointing and both took place at Kempton – all three career wins were left-handed, compared to right-handed form-figures of 000.
Bazergan – Lacks the all-important Class 2 to 4 handicap victory on his CV.
Whitcombe Minister – Lacks the all-important Class 2 to 4 handicap victory on his CV, and has awkward wide, low draw to overcome – only two of the last 13 winners came from the low section of the draw.
Albaqaa – Excellent trends profile and yard amongst the winners of late. Managed to win first time up in 2008.
Baylini – Had more than 30 career outings and no winner had appeared during the last week.
Swiss Act – Excellent trends profile and yard won it in 2007. Despite inconsistent form figures, record in 1m4f handicaps is 1021. Low draw is the only negative.
Tamini’s History – Decent profile for a rank outsider, but would have to be biggest priced winner of this.
Stand Guard – A four-time Kempton winner, unlike the past 13 victors that had yet to score here.
Opera Prince – Excellent trends profile and yard has been amongst the winners of late. Likely SP would fit snugly between the ideal band of 9/1-16/1.
Greylami – Not the best draw in stall 4 and has already won at Kempton unlike the previous 13 winners.
King Olav – Has a decent trends profile but has already won at Kempton and will have to be a Pattern perfomer to win from the outside stall 1.
Sweet Lightning – Decent enough profile, but has already won here at Kempton.
Brouhaha – Another to have already won here at Kempton.
TRENDS CONCLUSION: The stat involving a prior win at Kempton may be only a coincidence, but until that trend is broken, I will continue to use it to knock out several runners. Cape Express is sure to go well, but with the SP stat favouring those around 9/1 to 16/1, I favour three runners that are likely to be within that band.
Opera Prince – Swiss Act - Albaqaa
TOP OF THE FORM
Although the Top 20 concentrates on recent races, it can always pay to look back at turf races from the backend of last season during the start of the Flat season, a point proven at Kempton last Wednesday when Mafaaz franked the red-hot Tattersalls Million race won by Donatavium from Newmarket in October.
This race featured in the Top 20 in the autumn, but I would strongly recommend anyone who has half an hour free to add some of the horses from this big field to any list to follow.
Here are a couple of races that aren’t in the chart but are worth looking into:
23 February Wolverhampton (AW), Maiden won by Just Timmy Marcus – 3 wins from 13 runs.
3 March Southwell (AW), Handicap won by Grimes Faith – 3 wins from 8 runs.
I’m also going to list all the qualifiers from the Top 20 when they run each day this week up until Sunday.
This exercise is fairly time consuming so I can only do it for one week – let’s hope there are a few winners to make it worth it!
I’ll add the runners onto this blog each day, along with the profit or loss from the previous day, instead of starting a new daily blog.
Sunday 29 March – Top 20 qualifiers
2.00 Doncaster - Bailieborough (from No.10 in the chart)
3.15 Kelso - I´m Delilah (from No.19 in the chart)
3.15 Kelso - Overbranch (from No.19 in the chart)
2.50 Newton Abbot - Cricket Boy (from No.2 in the chart)
2.50 Newton Abbot - Rampant Ronnie (from No.10 in the chart)
4.35 Newton Abbot - Valley Ride (from No.14 in the chart)
The week so far...
Tuesday
Badly Bruised 2nd 15-2
Wednesday
Just Standeese PU 16-1
Brazilian Brush 6th 20-1
Speed Bonnie Boat WON 11-8
Vibe 4th 10-1
Soul Singer 7th 14-1
Wahan 6th 10-1
Thursday
Le Petit Vigier 6th 10-1
Just Five WON 5-1
Bamby 2nd 11-2
The Graig WON 11-1
Friday
Tasheba WON 4-9
Petito 3rd 5-1
Magical Song 3rd 9-1
Rub Of The Relic 10th 10-1
Very Well Red 4th 6-1
Saturday
Valento 6th 10-1
Noble Bily NR
TOTAL +£4.83 profit to levels
(Still holding on to a profit for the week that will be decided on Sunday!)
Tuesday, 24 March 2009
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14 comments:
David
Enjoy the blog - think two of your horses to follow today Just Standeese - pulled up in the race to follow and Brazilian Brush last in both previous runs do not do justice to your system. Can't see they could be serious contenders and they will do your daily stake review unneccessary damage.
Incidentally how do you manage to identify the races follow ?
Anonymous
You are right, not every qualifier would be a serious contender, but I leave that option open to readers so they can make the choice and develop their own system within the method.
I think it would cloud matters if I only mentioned those with a chance, and quite regularly do runners, say, finishing 8th of 12 from one of the form races pop up at big odds.
Of the seven runners so far this week, only two were single-figure odds, finishing first and second.
The last two weeks have shown a clear level profit on every runner, so while I had time this week, I thought I'd run the system for all to see - a similar thing I did with the trends book at Cheltenham on here.
I'm a big believer in showing that your systems/methods work - if it turns out to be a bad week for the Top 20 then so be it, but the show goes on.
As for identifying the races, I check the day's results in the Racing Post paper using the 'racecheck' in the form section as a starting point.
I then take a closer look at each race to see if the rating is high enough and if it also has potential, trying to avoid races like a six-runner claimer where the first two have subsequently won and the third was 15 lengths back in third - not much potential there.
The Attheraces website have also helped speed things up for me with their future form - it can only be a matter of time before the RP replicate that on their site!
Good luck,
David
Killfinnan Castle from no. 15?
The database I use to highlight when the horses are entered - horseracebase - only flags the next two runs; this will be Killfinnian Castle's third outing since the race at No.15.
It's an annoying glitch, but I only rate the runners on their next two outings anyway, which is explained in the 'how it works' panel in the RFO.
Ideally the RFO would include 'all' runners in their weekly entries index page - despite if they were running for the third or fourth time since the race - but their IT department hasn't got round to it as yet. I'm told the average is two years for things to get done at the RP.
Hi David
Excellant stuff,being a reader RFO ive just started reading the trends pages and saw you had a blog,just reading through if any horses were mentioned tonight,I spotted you tipped The Graig 6.50 wol 2 minutes before the off,just got on and it Won at 12s you could have got 20's off the tote market,only small stakes but it gives me a bank for the start of the flat season,thank you David and all the best for the coming flat season
George
Great stuff David.
I'm the anonymous Kilfinnan question from earlier.
I've just started using horseracebase and am still getting used to it.
The 4.20 at Southwell today should be interesting
Hi David
I read RFO every week and follow your column with interest, as well as this blog. I am a great believer in the "notebook" approach to backing horses, and your Top Of The Form is right up my street. However, I'm still not sure of the best way to make use of the chart. At the minute I just note the horses you mention in "BOLD", as I find this is the quickest and easiest way to do it (I work full time and can't devote as much time to Racing as I would like), but any advice on how to make better use of the chart would be greatly appreciated.
Regards
Richard Carter
Where is the best place to get hold of your book via the net?
I don't live in the UK.
Thanks
Hi Richard,
I think the first thing to do regarding the Top 20 is to use a database that informs you of all the runners entered each day - I use horseracebase which is funded by donations.
I'm afraid the next part of knowing which ones to back isn't as clearcut, but I can pass on three pointers.
1. The highest new entry each week can often throw up an instant winner.
2. Make sure to follow all runners from races that achieve a race rating of +10 or higher. These races are rare but worth waiting for, hence Trafalgar Square's Lingfield race that only recently left the chart.
3. From the example I've given on my blog this week, it can often pay to follow every runner from the chart on a level stake basis - the two previous weeks also showed a healthy level profit each week. This also helps eliminate any thought process, which can lead to missing out on a 10-1 winner that finished an unattractive 8th of 10 last time. You may also wish to only follow those with a resonable chance, say, those at around 12-1 or shorter.
The horses I bold up in my RFO column are the obvious ones to follow from a race, such as a horse running on well into third. However, it isn't easy for me to nominate the right horse.
An excellent recent example would be the current No.6 in the chart from Ascot. Prior to Cheltenham, I put forward several runners that finished in the top six at Ascot as ones to note at Cheltenham, only for the ninth-placed American Trilogy to go and score at 20-1!
It's similar to following a column on trainer form - what ones do you follow for the coming week?
It really is a case of finding a system within the method - which has always been the fun part of punting - and the three pointers above are a start.
Best - David
You get a copy from highstakes just give thema call or order it from amazon, highstakes are on amazon too.
Thanks lemondash
David
Many thanks for your reply
Firstly, I am fine with alerting myself to runners as I use the easyodds.com horse alert service.
If I can just touch on your points...
1. You say the highest new entry can throw up instant winners - is this by backing every horse from that race or just the first 3 home?
2. Fair point and I'll keep an eye out for such races
3. I like the sound of the level stakes approach to every runner, eliminating the thought process would make it easier for me as I don't have as much time available as I would like, but does this mean that to do this you would have to back every runner in every race from the chart that was declared that week? Also, if a race drops out of the chart do you remove the horses from that race? And could you apply stop at a winner to the method? (I.e. if a horse wins then you remove and dont back it again unless it re-appears in a new race?)
Regards
Richard
Richard,
Highest new entry – Following all runners from the highest new entry during the following week can return a clear profit, but usually the highest finisher alone has done well for me in the past.
Following all runners from the chart – Yes, this involves backing every runner from the entire chart, as was shown on my blog last week.
However, I only follow runners on their subsequent two outings. I’m not sure if Easyodds.com gives you every runner from each race, but Horseracebase.com does, as you can select the races you wish to follow and the runners are then highlighted each day.
This leads me to your next query, if a race falls out of the Top 20, I delete it from my list on Horseracebase and stop following the runners. At the same time, I also add that week’s new entries – it takes just minutes.
Regarding the stop at a winner, that really is up to you, but I tend to stop following a horse from a race once it has won for me. If you choose to do level stakes on all runners, though, you would have to follow them on their subsequent two runs, which is fine as plenty of runners can win twice from one of the Top 20 races – Hollow Jo a recent example.
Hope that helps,
David
David
Fantastic my friend, you have answered all of my long standing queries regarding "Top Of The Form", and I feel I can now move forward with this excellent source of winners.
Regards
Richard
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