Here are the past week’s bumper performance ratings from both codes, with plenty to chew on regarding the future.
FLAT
Feilden Stakes – Redwood 68
Nell Gwyn Stakes – Fantasia 73
European Free H’cap – Ouqba 70
Abernant Stakes – Tax Free 72
Craven Stakes – Delegator 74
Earl of Sefton Stakes – Tazeez 80
Doncaster Mile – Staying On 69
Greenham Stakes – Vocalised 70
Fred Darling Stakes – Lahaleeb 65
Spring Cup – Extraterrestrial 63
John Porter Stakes – Enroller 75
Ballysax Stakes – Fame And Glory 75
JUMPS
Kevin Brady (Festival) Novice Hurdle – Oscar Dan Dan 62
Powers Gold Cup – Aran Concerto 71
Rathbarry (Dunboyne) Novice Hurdle – Kempes 65
Irish Grand National – Niche Market 74
Silver Trophy Chase – Atouchbetweenacara 76
Future Champion Novices’ Chase – Deep Purple 74
Scottish Champion Hurdle – Noble Alan 68
Scottish Grand National – Hello Bud 70
Compiling the above ratings has occupied most of my Wednesday morning so there isn’t much time for a lot else, as I promised the grass would be cut before my wife returns at 3pm and there is Epsom and snooker on the box…o-oh!
However, I will squeeze in a few points of interest from the past week.
First, I hope some of the examples I gave here last week regarding the trends ratings at Newmarket came in handy. Both sets of analysis managed to short-list the winners, and I managed to back Ouqba on Wednesday. I wish I could say the same about Tax Free on Thursday when I attended – nice to see the weather’s sunny this week! – but I only backed the first two: Edge Closer and Knot In Wood as I thought the David Nicholls yard was out of form.
However, I came out of the day with no damage as I backed Tazeez in the Earl Of Sefton – hope some of you noticed he was an above-par winner of the Cambridgeshire, which is a five-star race. Whether he turns out to be as good as Gosden’s Halling from the nineties is another thing, but he looked in good condition in the paddock.
(PS. The first trainer I saw that day was Alan Bailey – looks a bit like the late-Freddie Williams – who trained Its Alright to win at 7/1. Did I back it?…exactly!).
TOP OF THE FORM
I’ve been contacted several times regarding ways of profiting from the Top 20, but as I’ve stated, there are many and it really is a case of finding a way that suits you.
A good example came last week when the current number one race produced runner-up, Mount Benger, to score for a third subsequent time, this time at 33/1.
I only rate runners on their next two outings, and only consider punting them until they have won and then scratch them, but Mount Benger proved not for the first time in the past year since I’ve been producing my column, that it can pay to stick with the first three during the next two months.
I hope some of you have found a way of nailing winners from the Top 20 and feel free to share any thoughts on here. I tend to keep a list of horses that I ‘bold up’ in my RFO copy on an alert website, which paid dividends on Monday when Royal Wedding won at a very generous 7/1.
I’m working four shifts at the Guardian this week from Friday to Monday, but will try and blog again if I get a chance - in the meantime have a look at the following site http://formbet.co.uk/
Finally, a message to Tom, who joined me at Newmarket last week – I’ve enjoyed reading through the Odds On magazines you gave me, hope to meet up again soon.
Tuesday, 21 April 2009
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6 comments:
Hi David
Love your books, helps no-end when analysing the big races.
Really like your blog too and always read your column in the RFO. I've recently moved by daily horse racing blog from racebets to FormBet.co.ukI send out daily horse rating and betting analysis daily to my email subscribers.
I've put a link to your blog on your homepage and would appreciate a reciprocal link.
If you want to put a bit of blurb together about your site, I will send it out to my email subscribers and put a write-up summary on my blog.
Keep up the good work.
Cheers
Dave
David, purchased your book yesterday & didn't expect too much based on others I've seen (no offence!). However, I think it is an excelent timesaver and having reviewed the results from the first few races of the season and looked at your ratings I think you have put together an excellent publication. Not only will it help create a shortlist for finding a winner but I can see it being an excellent guide for layers like myself, good stuff thanks. Adrian
Hi David
Yes I certainly got stuck into Royal Wedding (Can't for the life of me think what made me decide to back it!! Ha ha). I'd had a good weekend, backing the winner of the Scottish National (Hello Bud) and the winner of the Spring Cup at Newbury (Extraterrestrial), so when I saw Royal Wedding was running, and everything looked good for a big run, I had a decent amount on. I went on the nose at the early 9-2, but a big thanks to Stan James for their "B.O.G.", as I was paid out at 7-1.
Keep up the good work.
Regards
Richard
Dave,
Thanks for your support and putting a link for my blog on your site.
I'm a bit short of time this week to put together a blurb, but a mention for my book to your subscribers would be grand.
Best - David
Adrian,
Glad to hear you're enjoying the book.
There's a lot going on at this stage of the season with six meetings a day, so hopefully it will provide plenty of bets, including the lays.
Not only can poor favourites be found using the trends on the day, but one of the main reasons I produced the winner's next four runs is to highlight potential lays in the future via the below-par winners.
Best - David
Richard,
You sound like you're flying at the moment, hope it continues for a while yet - there's plenty to get stuck into from the trends books over the weekend.
Best - David
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