Ratings and Top of the Form

(Please note, the Grade 2 Mersey Novices' Hurdle on page 132 of the jumps book, traditionally run on the Thursday, is now the opening race on Saturday)

Here are the first performance ratings from the new Flat 2009 book:

CAMMIDGE TROPHY – Prime Defender 72

LINCOLN – Expresso Star 74

MAGNOLIA STAKES – Dansant 75

ROSEBERY STAKES – Greylami 61

Prime Defender got the book off to a good start as an ideal trends winner of the Cammidge Trophy, especially with Barry Hills having trained two previous victors.
I was contacted several times last week regarding how to compile a short-list of fancies per race from the book, and I mentioned using a ratings system to help with the task – something I first used in the mid-nineties.

The system simply involves awarding one point for every trend a runner matches, with bonus points for strong trends, as can be seen below for the aforementioned Cammidge Trophy.

Inxile

Off the track 3 months or longer = +1
Experienced pattern company (bonus point for top three) = +2
British or irish-bred = +1
Four-to seven-year-old = +1
11 or more career runs = 0
scored over 6f = 0
experienced top four at Doncaster = 0
won a class 2 hcp or listed = +1
barry hills or richard hannon-trained = 0
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +6

Beacon Lodge
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +5

Beaver Patrol
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +7

Hoh Hoh Hoh
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +5

Internationaldebut
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +6

Knot In Wood
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +8

Music Box Express
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +4

Prime Defender
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +10

Tamagin
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +6

Vitznau
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +7

Max One Two Three
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +7

Pusey Street Lady
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +8

Quiet Elegance
TOTAL TRENDS RATING = +5

TOP THREE TRENDS RATINGS
+10 Prime Defender
+8 Knot In Wood
+8 Pusey Street Lady

Accurate results like this don’t occur every time – especially finding the first three – but using the ratings can be a handy method and don't take as long as you may think.

I have applied the same method to the 2009 Grand National for you all to use (see bottom of this blog), awarding bonus points at this stage only to Irish-bred runners. More specific clues can be applied, such as those that made the top five last time, Nigel Twiston- Davies runners or those that ran between four and six times that season, to form a more accurate list.

I’ll leave that option open, but the idea at this stage is to apply the main trends from the book to sort out the top contenders and then use other information such as good ground, trainer form etc to whittle the short-list down further.

I selected Parsons Legacy as an ante-post bet on a previous blog when the weights were first published and noticed on the front of Wednesday's Racing Post that there has been a tipster gamble on him (33/1 into 14-1), so let’s hope that hasn’t jinxed the beast!

TOP OF THE FORM

The Top 20 runners showed a crumb of profit last week – 83p to be precise – following several winners including ones at 11-1 and 5-1.
The idea of highlighting each runner daily last week was to show that a profit can be made some weeks by following each runner to level stakes. Other methods can then be used within the system to enhance profits – for instance, concentrating on just those with a reasonable chance, say, 12-1 or shorter, which would’ve returned a bigger profit last week. Or perhaps following only those runners that finished in the top-half of the field from a race in the chart.

Here are some more races that haven’t as yet made the Top 20.

3 March, Exeter, novice chase won by Picts Hill – 3 wins from 8 runs.

11 March, Huntingdon, novice chase won by Muthenbar – 2 wins from 3 runs.

16 March, Hereford, handicap hurdle won Patrixbourne – 2 wins from 3 runs.


Grand National trends ratings

CLOUDY LANE = 6 points
Raced during the past two months = 1 point
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1 point
Won over 3m or further = 1 point
Winless or just one win that season = 0 points
Officially rated 136-149 = 0 points
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0 point
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1 point
Eight to 11-years-old = 1 point
British or Irish-bred = 1 point

CHELSEA HARBOUR = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred (bonus point) = 2

SNOWY MORNING = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

KNOWHERE = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

COMPLY OR DIE = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

OLLIE MAGERN = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

STAN = 5
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

BLACK APALACHI = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

HEAR THE ECHO = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

PRIESTS LEAP = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

MY WILL = 6
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

EUROTREK = 5
Raced during the past two months = 0
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 2

STATE OF PLAY = 6
Raced during the past two months = 0
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 0
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 0
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

BIG FELLA THANKS = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 1

MON MOME = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

SILVER BIRCH = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 2

BUTLER’S CABIN = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase =1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

PARSONS LEGACY = 9
Raced during the past two months = 0
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

REVEILLEZ = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

FUNDAMENTALIST = 10
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

GOLDEN FLIGHT = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

L’AMI = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

BATTLECRY = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

CORNISH SETT = 10
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

FLEET STREET = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

MUSICA BELLA = 6
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

CAN’T BUY TIME = 6
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 2

DARKNESS = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

IRISH INVADER = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

RAMBLING MINSTER = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

SOUTHERN VIC = 10
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

KILBEGGAN BLADE = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred =1

BROOKLYN BROWNIE = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

HIMALAYAN TRAIL = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 0
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 1

ARTEEA = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

CERIUM = 7
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 0
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

IDLE TALK = 9
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 2

KELAMI = 8
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 1
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 1
Eight to 11-years-old = 1
British or Irish-bred = 0

ZABENZ = 5
Raced during the past two months = 1
Faced fences at least 10 times = 1
Won over 3m or further = 1
Winless or just one win that season = 0
Officially rated 136-149 = 1
Carried 11st 1lb or lighter = 1
Triumphed in a Class 1 chase = 0
Eight to 11-years-old = 0
British or Irish-bred = 0

TOP 12 RATED

10 CORNISH SETT
10 FUNDAMENTALIST
10 SOUTHERN VIC
9 SILVER BIRCH
9 BUTLER’S CABIN
9 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT
9 PARSONS LEGACY
9 REVEILLEZ
9 BATTLECRY
9 DARKNESS
9 ARTEEA
9 IDLE TALK