Thursday 11 June 2009

Unlucky at Epsom?

Well, I like to tell things as they are and the dry spell continues for the Top 20 I'm afraid, with qualifiers performing miserably during the past week - all of this after I confidently stated the chart was on solid ground!
One thing's for sure, though, when you're at the bottom, there's only one way to go and may the tide turn very soon.

Monday 15 June Top 20 qualifiers:

2.45 Carlisle, Asserting
3.00 Sedgefield, Obara DAvril
3.30 Sedgefield, Im Your Man
3.30 Sedgefield, Toulouse Express
4.30 Sedgefield, What Happened
5.00 Sedgefield, Fred Bojangals
7.10 Warwick, Velvet Band
7.40 Warwick, Green Poppy

Whilst reviewing last week's form book, I did my annual digging in the final event of the Epsom meeting - the six-furlong sprint handicap.

This race usually has several hard-luck stories in what is a rough race around Tattenham Corner, and when glancing through this year's 'unlucky' runners, I wondered whether past sprinters that had suffered similar interference went on to gain compensation.

Therefore, I made a note of those runners from the race to have made the top-half placings which earned a comment along the lines of 'not a clear run' or 'hampered', along with their subsequent results during the last five years:

2008
No qualifiers

2007
2nd Prince Namid – L, L, L
7th Idle Power – L, L, L
10th Pacific Pride – L, L, L

2006
5th Indian Trail – L, Won 11-4, L
11th Hidden Dragon – L, L, L

2005
4th Native Title – L, L, L

2004
3rd Lafi – Won 6-1, L, L
6th Blackheath – L, L, L
10th Undeterred – L, L, L

No clear profit was accumulated in backing all the qualifiers, but it was interesting to note that the two runners to go and score were both the highest finishers, and both trained by, you guessed it, David Nicholls.

And so the burning question is, what was 2009's qualifier - the answer: Something.

This is a very interesting runner as he was with Terry Mills until switching to David Nicholls in 2008, however he was slow to show any form for the yard in eight races before winning on his reappearance at Kempton in April. Nicholls revealed afterwards: "The horse was seriously ill in Dubai last year and everyone has been very patient with him".
Something was also ridden prominently until this year when patient tactics have increased confidence - the feeling of passing other horses works wonders, rather than them passing by the horse by.
He looks a different horse this year with new tactics over a strongly run 6f, along with a very nice handicap mark, and with all four career wins over 7f, this will put him in good stead for for one of the top 6f sprint handicaps this summer.
He may not make the cut in the Wokingham, but the 6f sprint at Newcastle on Northumberland Day could have his name on.

Aye Aye Digby was also very unlucky, but considering it started as 10/3 Fav, I get the impression the public will want him again next time at shorter.
Piscean was another sufferer back in ninth, but as the results above show, those from mid division didn't turn out that profitable.

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