Saturday 24 October 2009

Website update

Top of the Form

Here are the Top 20 qualifiers for Sunday 1 November:

1.55 Lingfield, Toballa
3.05 Lingfield, Fantasy Explorer
3.40 Lingfield, Titus Gent

Nice to see a return to form from the Top 20 with those qualifiers around the 8/1 or shorter mark this week returning a profit - more about that approach on the new site - including my RFO nap, Daraz Rose, on Friday.
That puts me 'just' £18 behind Dave Nevison in the naps table so I need to pull a 20-1 out the hat next week! I may have had a better chance but for recording the most non-runners.

Website update - Part VIII !!!!!

The website developers showed me the amendments on Friday and it looked very polished. Content will now be added over the weekend before the launch button can be pressed on Monday - it then takes 24-48 hours to go live so it should be accessible around Wednesday.

The trends races will be available on pdf files via Adobe software that is free to download. I suggest anyone without this software should download it now to save time once the site is live - Adobe can be downloaded for free at
http://get.adobe.com/uk/reader/
(It took 15 minutes when I dowloaded it)

Thanks again for your patience, in the meantime, here are the jumps trends.

Trends

Wetherby

WEST YORKSHIRE HURDLE

WINNER’S PROFILE
 All 13 winners emerged from the first four in the betting.
 12 were aged six to 10-years-old – experience helped as young, second-season hurdlers struggled.
 12 scored at Class 2 level or higher.
 11 had been off the track around five months or longer and were last seen at a Grade 1 venue – the last four arrived via Aintree. The two exceptions with a recent outing came via the Flat.
Pettifour last year became the fifth winner to lump a penalty for a Graded victory, and was also trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’ second winner in three years.

FUTURE POINTERS This early season staying hurdle has improved in terms of quality in recent times, attracting two past World Hurdle winners in the last four renewals, although it hasn’t provided much of a springboard for the future. Only two winners managed to follow-up after Wetherby – both six and seven-year-olds – in the Long Distance Hurdle and Elite Hurdle, while eight failed in the former event at Newbury, and five flopped in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot.

Were West Yorkshire Hurdle winners profitable to follow on their subsequent three runs?
No – 6 wins from 37 runs returned a loss of -£23.85 to a £1 level stake.
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 8 runs – all eight were unplaced.

Runners-up next three runs: 6 wins from 32 runs returned a loss of -£15.47 to a £1 level stake.
2006 My Way De Solzen – Cheltenham Grade 2 Novice Chase
2003 Royal Emperor – Towton Novices’ Chase
1996 What A Question – Long Distance Hurdle, Christmas Hurdle
Cheltenham Festival record: 1 win from 7 runs
2006 My Way De Solzen ► Arkle Chase (1st)
2003 Royal Emperor ► Royal & SunAlliance Chase (2nd)

Third-placed next three runs: 2 wins from 12 runs returned a profit of +£50.00 to £1 levels (50/1 on the Flat).
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 3 runs – all three were unplaced.


CHARLIE HALL CHASE

WINNER’S PROFILE
 All 13 winners scored over 3m, including seven course and distance winners,
 12 had a minimum of 11 career chase runs.
 12 were seven to 10-years-old.
 11 returned 6/1 or shorter.
 10 made their seasonal reappearance, while two of the three to have already raced made the top two.
A total of nine had their final stop at Aintree, Ayr or Cheltenham.
Those either unpenalised or with a Grade 1 penalty have a good record – avoid Grade 2and 3 penalty carriers.
Howard Johnson, Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies all trained two winners.

FUTURE POINTERS This Grade 2 is one of Wetherby’s highlights of the year, but an event that has had less of an impact for the season ahead since the turn of the century with only Grey Abbey in the last eight years going on to record any significant victories – three runners-up performed marginally better (see below).
Compare this to the previous five years from 1996 to 2000 when four Charlie Hall victors scored soon after Huntingdon, including two winners of the King George VI Chase, and it can only be hoped that a future star emerges from here soon to boost this historic race.

Were Charlie Hall Chase winners profitable to follow on their subsequent three runs?
No – 9 wins from 38 runs returned a loss of -£12.70 to a £1 level stake.
Cheltenham Festival record: 1 win from 10 runs.
1997 One Man ► Queen Mother Champion Chase (1st)
2006 Our Vic ► Ryanair Chase (2nd)

Runners-up next three runs: 3 wins from 30 runs returned a loss of -£7.67 to a £1 level stake.
2006 Neptune Collonges – Rehearsal Chase
2005 Kingscliff – Betfair Chase
2003 Marlborough – Racing Post Chase
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 6 runs.
2004 Sir Rembrandt ► Gold Cup (3rd)

Third-placed next three runs: 1 win from 12 runs returned a profit of +£5.00 to a £1 level stake.
2002 Gingembre – Hennessy Gold Cup
Cheltenham Festival record: 0 win from 3 runs – all three were unplaced.

10 comments:

peter said...

david
what methods of payment will y ou be using for the new web site
peter leicester'

David Myers said...

Peter

The method of payment will include all major debit and credit cards via Paypal.

Cheers - David

peter Cully said...

David
Are you going to publish the book " Racing Trends Revealed NH 09/10" or is this going to be web based only?
Peter

David Myers said...

Peter

It will be web based only.

Publishing the trends online means I don't have to find a three-month period to write it in one chunk anymore - my wife and daughter were very patient with me for the first three books.

I can now update the races on a weekly basis, along with additional advantages, like making sure the dates of the races are correct throughout the season.

Cheers - David

peter said...

thanks for the reply david,
very wary of debit card no,s given out on the internet. will it be possible to set up a standing order or direct cheque payment.
peter leicester.

David Myers said...

Peter,

If you leave your email address on here I will contact you regarding payment.

Best - David

Anonymous said...

thanks david,
email address:

peter.stringer@ntlworld.com.

cheers
peter leicester.

Anonymous said...

I'm recording the level stake profit for these now, it doesn't make for pleasent viewing the last couple of weeks, i'd be interested if anybody has got any stats for the purple patch, ironically before I started punting them! I can live with a hefty losing month as long as the winning months make up for it.
If there's has beeen no long term profitability in these selections, i'd rather know. I'll be subscribing to the website for the trends service whatever the situation with the top 20 list, it would be nice to know to save a lot of time and money if following them 'blind' has not been a winning system.

cheers
kevo

David Myers said...

Hi Kevo,

I don't have any record of the Top 20 qualifiers mainly because they aren't tips nor selections.

The reason I decided to publish the qualifiers in the first place was that the Racing Post's IT department were unable to highlight my qualifiers in the RFO entries index.
Therefore, to save readers time in attempting to keep track of the runners each day, I thought I'd list them on my blog for free - as an extension of my Top of the Form piece.

I've mentioned previously that Top of the Form is similar to a trainer form column in that I list the ones (races) currently doing well and hand it over to readers to follow the runners they choose.
I imagine it would be difficult to follow and profit every form trainer's runners for a week, and similarly with mine.

There have been weeks when following every qualifier 'blind' returned a profit but that wasn't the purpose of listing them.
The key is to find a way of profiting from them and if you are able to do that then you have a unique system that represents value - as no-one else has it.

When Top of the Form was first launched, there were several letters of praise sent in to the RFO and I remember one in which somebody followed only the top three from each race from Tuesday onwards.

One of the things I will be doing on the new site is highlighting ways of narrowing down all the qualifiers to just those with a live chance as it's difficult to be keen on a runner that finished 18th of 20 from one of the Top 20 races when it is 50/1 next time.

I'm looking forward to the journey ahead with Top of the Form on the new site - stepping into the unknown is where the adventure lies.

Best - David

Anonymous said...

Thanks for taking the trouble to reply, I look forward to the new website with interest.

cheers
kevo