Don't forget Ascot

A friend expressed their surprise to hear about my wife’s pregnancy on my blog yesterday as they were expecting to read the latest trends news. I pointed out, though, that I enjoy the freedom this blog allows to write about any aspects of my existence, plus, how one dimensional would life be if there was only racing to discuss. One thing’s for sure, the world’s not slowing down…especially not just for racing.

However, I forget to mention Wednesday’s Sagaro Stakes at Ascot from the book in yesterday's excited blog, so to keep my friend happy, I thought I’d give my own ‘trends’ notes on today’s race.

Sagaro Stakes

Peppertree Lane – Lacks a victory over today’s 2m trip unlike 10 past winners, but has scored over 1m6f like the two exceptions. Of more concern, though, is the weight as penalty carriers have struggled.

Baddam – Probably not good enough to win this being rated 95 as a mark in the 100’s is required and would be the biggest priced winner of the Sagaro for many a year (let’s hope that doesn’t win then).

Distinction – Good enough to take this having proven himself and fits all the trends. Main issue is whether he’s ripe after 193 days off, though did win on reappearance two years ago, but has also flopped several times after a long break. Sounds obvious, but late market clues may be best guide – some positive comments from connections in todays’s Racing Post.

Frank Sonata –Thommo must love commentating on this horse – give us a good tune etc – but he’d have to record his first win over 2m today. Never finished in top-two or ran in John Porter on return and should be a double-figure price – bypassed.

Shipmaster – The type of trends horse that only just misses out in a few categories having been beaten a nose in Listed company last time. However, it could have gone the other way and that top-two finish on his return is a bonus. Has won over 1m6f. Interesting. (This is beginning to sound like spotlight now).

Soapy Danger – Fits all the trends, apart from one if he goes off market leader, as they have a lousy record. Sometimes, though, there isn’t the perfect trend horse to fit every category so the favourite stat may have to be ignored.

Tungsten Strike – Obviously fits the trends having won it last year, but that was on favoured fast ground and further rain won’t help. It’s been a while since there was a back-to-back winner of the Sagaro - classy Double Trigger was the last in 1996.
*just been declared non-runner


This isn't the ideal race in which to have a short-list as it is now only six runners, but the winner should hopefully emerge from either Distinction, Shipmaster or Soapy Danger.