Epsom…memories, bets and trends

I started writing this Thursday morning with the word ‘bliss’, as I was due to be off work, but I’ve been called in – so much for a relaxing morning.
The decision I was then left with was what to do with my precious 90 minutes at home before commuting into London during this gruelling schedule I’ve set myself this year - another page in the Jumps trends book, or an Epsom blog. The blog won.

Epsom - you either love it or hate it. I can’t help but love it as I’ve three special memories.

The first memory was one of my earliest as I made my racecourse debut aged 14 in the late-eighties. My Dad took me to an evening meeting. Anyone who saw the film ‘City Slickers’ when Billy Crystal’s main character describes how his Dad took him to his first baseball game will understand. How his Dad taught him to read the card and how colourful it was at the stadium. It was similar for me - the clip can be viewed at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sH6unNljq7E
I’d watched racing beforehand cheekily on the black and white portable television and wasn’t aware of how colourful the jockey silks were until I saw them for real. My Dad also taught me how to read the form – I was meant to be studying – and one of his favourite phrases ‘nearest finish’ made more sense to me than any of my school books. He said to follow horses that earned this comment over an extra furlong. I did. About five years later it helped win me just under £2,000 on a horse called Superbrave – my first big win.
As Billy Crystal said in the film, ‘that was my best day’, well that evening at Epsom was one of mine.

My second memory is from 1999 when I won on Further Outloook, a horse I mentioned in my last blog.
I was working at Ladbrokes HQ at the time and had been on a horrendous losing run. My bank was nearly gone, and I mean bank, as I’d borrowed that from Barclays to bet with at the start of the season.
On the Friday at Epsom I had been on my evening break and was contemplating a bet in the last on Tier Worker. I was feeling sorry for myself at the time and thought ‘what’s the point, it’ll only lose’. But I bet and it won.
The following day, refreshed and eager I placed two bets. The first, Topton, scored at Doncaster after being awarded the race in a stewards’ enquiry.
The next bet, Further Outlook, won the six-furlong handicap at Epsom after Kevin Darley switched to the stands’ side at 13/2 – think I got 8’s in the morning pre-Betfair.
Two bets, two winners. This was more like it. I was in business now.
Those three winners triggered an amazing run over three weeks that saw me win over £3,000 and led to me landing a big touch on Deep Space at Royal Ascot that took me over the five-figure sum – something I always wanted to achieve.
There will be another time to tell my Deep Space story.

My third memory is one of the latest - when I got married last year.
My wife and I honeymooned in Vegas and I watched Epsom via the internet in Caesar’s Palace where we stayed. Anyone who has been will know, but in the casinos they have hole-in-the-wall internet access, similar to cash machines, but with a keyboard. Anyway, I got up early to make sure the machine – there was only one – was free and logged onto the Racing Post site who were showing the BBC coverage. I had left a bet on Hogmaneigh at home and as the picture came up on the screen – which took a few minutes – the horse hit the front and won. A glance to my right and there were a mass of blackjack tables so I had a few games before returning to watch the Derby in which I didn't bet but saw Frankie achieve his dream.
One of the strangest experiences of my life to be watching Epsom in a hole-in-the-wall inside Caesar’s Palace with a casino in full swing just yards from me.

All three memories are the sort I took in my stride at the time but only hit me when looking back. Hopefully there will be more to come.

And so on to this year, and here is a brief trends preview of the Rose Bowl Handicap on Friday – note that the Diomed Stakes has been switched to Friday as it was run on Saturday last year.

Rose Bowl Handicap

Eradicate – Last two wins were over 1m4f and carries a lot of weight - the last winner from this sort of weight was in 1996.

Emirates Skyline – Lacks a recent outing unlike the past 12 winners and jury still out regarding yard’s runners – have slipped back into place mode of late.

Mr Aviator – Respected but has a high turf mark considering he has progressed on the all-weather. Most winners of this were rated lower.

Escape Route – Yard won it in 2000 and fits some of the trends, though as with those already mentioned, he may be too high in the ratings – another 3lb higher for getting beat at Chester.

Ladies Best – Lacks a distance and Class 2 victory and hasn’t shown much recently. Booking of Spencer will shorten the price.

Smart Instinct – Lacks a distance win but looks ready and capable of striking over this sort of trip. Very eyecatching run in the Zetland Gold Cup last time – a race used by the 1997 and 1998 winners. A further pound lower than last time, handles mud and yard won it in 2002.

Rationale – Fits the trends with a distance and Class 2 win, though softish ground could be his undoing - chance if it dries out.

Shake On It – Boasts a distance win but lacks a victory in this class and another that may have been kept away from the mud in his career to date.

Northern Spy – Shade low in the ratings and misses out in the distance and class category.

Moheebb – Similar comments to the above and hasn’t exactly been readied for this having run two days ago – more of an afterthought.

A good example of there not being a perfect trends horse and not many make the short-list, so I’m going to be bold in ignoring the distance stat and opt each-way if the price is right for Smart Instinct, instead of backing two or three which is my usual approach. If the ground dries out, then Rationale could enter calcualtions.

Good luck punting over the weekend.
(ps. another clip from City Slickers worth a view is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snQTvnINxn4&feature=related