CHELTENHAM DAY TWO

Here are my trends notes on the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (2.05 CH4)

China Rock – Just misses out on having raced in the last two months. Had more than five runs and won’t be in the first five of the betting.

Diamond Harry – Excellent trends profile with just the four hurdle outings and winners of the Challow at Newbury in December have a solid record at Cheltenham with four from seven making the frame.

Dorset Square – Doesn’t fit any trends

Junior – Hasn’t won the last twice which is a negative and not likely to be fancied in the betting.

Karabak – Excellent trends profile and only minor negative is the lack of a Graded placing as nine of the last 11 boasted such form.

Knockara Beau – Good trends profile but yard would be the least distinguished to land this and trainer commented that Aintree may suit better.

Mad Max – Age is a big negative, and like Karabak who he beat at Ascot, lacks a Graded placing as nine of the last 11 boasted such form.

Mikael D’Haguenet – Good trends profile but has raced more times than ideal with seven hurdle outings. Won the Barry & Sandra Kelly Novice Hurdle at Navan in December but all four winners of that failed at Cheltenham.

Quartetto – Only won a maiden hurdle 81 days ago and would have to be the biggest priced winner of this.

Quwetwo – Decent trends profile, though two negatives are a lack of Graded form and likely SP outside top five of the betting. Yard won this in 2005 though.

Realt Dubh – Fits the trends in some areas but lacks Graded form and a hurdles victory over 2m4f or further. Likely SP also a negative, but yard won this in 2006, offering outside hope.

Richard The Third – Doesn’t fit the trends with lack of winning form.

The Nightingale – Decent trends profile despite lacking Graded form. Massively unexposed, though front-running tactics last time will be hard to repeat here in a race that favours hold-up types.

Ruthenoise – Misses out from an age perspective and would have to defy long odds.


Trends top three: Diamond Harry – Karabak – Mikael D’Haguenet