Cheltenham, PRs & TOTF

Here are my trends notes on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30 CH4)


Aachen – non-runner

Ainama – Didn’t win last time but fits other trends and one of the fancied runners

Alarazi – Doesn’t fit any trends

Bee Sting – Doesn’t fit many trends

Copper Bleu – Didn’t win last time and only won 40% of career hurdle runs

Cousin Vinny – Didn’t win last time, but of the last three Bumper winners to come back the following season, two finished second and third so stats suggest a top three slot

Gloucester – Just a poor maiden win last time from 12 outings not ideal

Golan Way – Didn’t win last time and been absent longer than two months. Won the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot in November, but 10 winners of that were unplaced here since 1996

Go Native – Fits most trends other than being exposed with eight hurdle outings as most winners of this had a maximum of four runs. Yard won this in 2000, though, so one of the likelier sorts

Intensifier – No win from five hurdle runs simply not good enough

Kangaroo Court – Lost last time out and lacks a 50% win record and only Back In Front won this dropping back from 2m4f

Kempes – Excellent trends profile, Irish have a good record in this and yard won it in 2007

Leamington Lad – Lost last time out, only 3 hurdle wins from 24 and massively exposed

Leo’s Lucky Star – Been absent too long, lost last time and exposed

Medermit – Fits some trends well, but been absent longer than two months since winning the Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot in December, where two above-par winners triumphed at Cheltenham. Had more than ideal four career runs, but Ascot trend a plus

Michael Flips – Been absent longer than two months but fits most trends and nicely unexposed

Red Moloney – Excellent trends profile and yard won this with Arcalis in 2005. Another massively unexposed and fancied in the market

Shamari – Fits most trends and lively outsider but would have to be the biggest priced winner

Shoreacres – Lost last time and very exposed

Somersby – Decent trends profile but lost last time out and not many of this dropped back from 2m4f

Torpichen – Excellent trends profile, including experience on the Flat like seven other winners of this. Also handles the mud and likely to make top three

Trends top four: Torpichen – Cousin Vinny – Red Moloney - Kempes


PERFORMANCE RATINGS

‘NH’ NOVICES HANDICAP HURDLE FINAL – Big Eared Fran 64

IMPERIAL CUP HURDLE – Dave’s Dream 69


TOP OF THE FORM

Eyecatchers

Aachen
All For The Cause
Bajan Parkes
Berry Baby
Castano
Chief Yeoman
Cold Harbour
Cossack Prince
Dancing Tornado
Dishdasha (AW only)
Dubai Storming
Ermine Sea
Everybody Knows
Fair Point
Glamorous Spirit
Golden Pool
Killfinnan Castle
Mamlook
Mayberry
Mistress Cooper
Oberon Moon
Pedregal
Perange
Respective Way
Serabad
Silver Kate
South O’The Border
Tartak
The Cayterers
The King Of Angels
Zaynar
Zazamix