Cheltenham is over…let the Flat begin!

OK, the big one is over, but look on the bright side, the lighter evenings are approaching and summer is on the way where another feast of top-class Flat action awaits – Monday nights at Windsor are just around the corner!

I will be blogging a few times each week during the Flat season, providing readers of the book with updated performance ratings and pointers for the races, once runners are revealed at the entry stage.
These won’t be tips as such – does the world need another tipster? – as readers will no doubt want to find the race-winners themselves using clues from the book.

A quick word about trends.

I have been using past records/trends to identify winners of big races for 20 years – I am 35 now but was writing them down at school! – and have learned a few things in that time.

Firstly, there are good, and bad trends' years.

For instance, 1996 was a golden year, everything that fit the trends that season won – Coastal Bluff (Ayr Gold Cup), Clifton Fox (Cambridgeshire), Celeric (Northumberland), Crumpton Hill (Bunbury Cup) and many more.
The past 12 months have also been kind to trends’ followers, winners of the Great Voltigeur have a tidy recent record in the St Leger, and Lucarno was the obvious choice.

Then there can be bad years/spells – those that avoided Katchit at Cheltenham for being a five-year-old will know what I mean.
In the long-term, though, trends have proven a valuable guide if used with an open mind, which leads me to my second point – stick with the strongest and obvious trends.

The ‘winner’s profile’ section from the book is based around the strongest trends – nine of the last 10 winners coming from the first four in the betting, for example.
Once diluted trends, stats and facts emerge - four of the last 10 winners proven over a mile-and-a-half etc – then the method loses its shape.
In this year’s Totesport Trophy at Newbury, the main trends filtered just three horses which led me to backing Wingman at 20-1.
The point is, not what a smartarse I am, but how the key/main clues led the way.

Sometimes, sticking to just two or three strong trends will throw up a short-list of six or seven runners in a big field, but as I mentioned earlier about keeping an open mind, the application of the day’s going, draw and form of trainers helps whittle things down. There’s nothing wrong with backing more than one horse, if the prices are correct.

Looking ahead to this weekend’s races from the book – Doncaster and Kempton have kindly moved two of the races! (see separate blog) – one horse catches my eye in the Cammidge Trophy. Although five to seven-year-olds have come out best, two four-year-olds trained by Barry Hills – ‘Mr.Doncaster’ – have landed the prize and Prime Defender looks a similar type dropping in class.

My next blog will cover ‘future pointers’ from the book – a useful tool for exchange players.

Good luck.