Performance ratings

Here are the performance ratings for last week’s two races from the book.

Cammidge Trophy
Aahayson 70

Lincoln
Smokey Oakey 64

The one thing that stood out about the races on the straight track at Doncaster was the bias held by high numbers, which clouds both winners’ efforts as they enjoyed an advantage on the day. With that in mind, Prime Defender, who was mentioned here last week, did well to finish fourth in the Cammidge from a low stall and is worth monitoring as those in behind have subsequently done well from this race. Connections also mentioned he may need the run beforehand – heard that one before!
Another to note is John Gosden’s Escape Route, who finished fifth from a low draw in the Lincoln. Fourth-placed runners have been profitable to follow from this event, though this year’s candidate, Rio Riva, goes particularly well fresh so may be one to leave if reappearing quickly. Escape Route did well on this unsuitable soft ground and will be one to back long-term on fast ground in something like the Royal Hunt Cup.

As mentioned in the book, those that finish behind a winner can often prove the ones more worthy of following, as they may have been inconvenienced on the day, and a brief glance away from racing can give us a timely analogy.
The new series of The Apprentice which started on BBC1 during the week told us that the last three winners of the competition didn’t exactly go on to cover themselves in glory, while the runners-up managed to do better. This doesn’t surprise me as so many times in a competition or sporting event, the winner can prove to be a red herring, and it is something to keep in mind when analysing a big race. There isn’t anything wrong with following winners, as long as they emerge from the right events, and sticking to those from the better races in the book should prove worthwhile in the long-run.

The pick of this weekend’s races from the book is the Magnolia Stakes where fancied runners have a good record. One of the leading candidates, Great Hawk, looks to hold strong claims, especially as his recent third at Lingfield has been a traditional clue. He should also come on for that reappearance spin, as he has done the last two years when scoring on his second outing of the season.

Things go a bit quiet in these very early days of the book next week when the Grand National takes centre stage, but pick up again in a fortnight when there are 13 races from the book between April 12-19, including the Doncaster Mile and Easter Stakes, whose original dates were changed. Why run the Easter Stakes three weeks after Easter?

I will be blogging again in midweek with performance ratings and pointers from this weekend, which will be posted here earlier than the belated Friday of this week – I was on holiday in Cornwall with my wife and can recommend the seafood in Padstow to anyone thinking of visiting the area.

Good luck with any bets.