Form and trends

I’ve actually found an hour on Thursday evening to blog, my wife is reading by my side. She had her second visit from the mid-wife on Thursday and the baby’s heartbeat can be heard ticking along well and truly. Won’t be long until October, I’ve a feeling my life is about to change, so will enjoy my last summer of Flat racing as my editor at The Guardian – who has two children – tells me Saturday afternoon’s in front of the television will be a thing of the past!

I’ve enjoyed watching the Dante meeting at work this week and was glad to see the trends races from the book point up some of the winners – including the preview I did on Wednesday – and hope some of you backed Lush Lashes and Assertive.
The one horse that caught my eye, though, possibly as I backed it at 40/1 for the Oaks was Moonstone. I advised this filly along with Katiyra (25/1) back in mid-April in an ante-post piece for the Racing and Football Outlook.
Now, I may be a touch bias as I have an interest in Moonstone, but I came away from the Musidora – where she was fourth – feeling positive about Epsom. Seems I’m the only one though as everybody in the media only has eyes for Lush Lashes. However, my interpretation of Moonstone’s effort was that she was surprisingly pushed from fourth into the lead around the bend where she almost came down before losing her position under pressure. After slipping back into fourth, Murtagh never went for the whip until late on when she ran on again. Considering this was only her second outing and it was a trial over 1m2f, I thought she did well, and gave the strong impression 1m4f would very much suit – she flew past Lush Lashes after the line, admittedly the winner had been eased.
Anyway, we’ll see Oaks day how good she is, but I find it interesting how we all view races differently, and that’s what’s special about racing – forming an opinion and getting the chance to support that view via betting. Sometimes we’re right, sometimes we’re wrong, but getting it right now and again at the right odds is enough to make a profit.

I also have to mention briefly about the Dante meeting how back tracking and using the Future Pointers section in the book can help. I mentioned recently that the Spring Cup at Newbury in April pointed up the placed runners as ones to follow and Zaahid backed up that theory at Ascot last week. The same race also suggested swerving the winner, Lang Shining, next time out and he duly lost at York on Thursday. This method is handy to remember when analysing a race like the Hambleton Handicap at York on Thursday from a trends perspective, where Lang Shining made the short-list but could be eliminated owing to the Newbury stats.
Keep this in mind at the weekend and throughout the summer if encountering a runner from a trends race that won or was placed which featured in a previous race from the book and back track to see what the Future Pointers section reveals.

Finally, before wrapping up for the weekend – my wife and I are off to Cambridge where hopefully the rain stays away – followers of my Top Of The Form may be keeping an eye out for runners from the Cheltenham handicap hurdle won by Katies Tuitor. The winner let the form down in the Swinton, but there have been numerous winners to emerge from the race and fourth-placed, Wise Owl, could go well at decent odds at Aintree on Friday evening.
Two of my three picks from this week’s column were placed this week, including Generous Thought at York on Wednesday, who was unlucky not to score after missing the break which ultimately cost him the race. However, he still advertised the handicap form from Newbury, whose runners should be followed closely if appearing.
I know some of you use other websites to track horses that alert you when they appear, and I can recommend gg.com which emails you for free when a runner is entered the following day.

That’s all from me this week, good luck punting.