Royal Ascot - Day one

Performance ratings

BALLYMACOLL STAKES
Rosa Grace 62

BETFAIR SPRINT (WILLIAM HILL TROPHY)
Brave Prospector 70


Eyes down for a full week as Royal Ascot kicks off on Tuesday, and having watched the farmer’s weather forecast on Sunday, the ground should remain on the fast side for all five days, and let’s hope so, as it will provide a solid platform to work from.
Some of you may have already noticed that the Coventry Stakes – traditionally the opener – has switched places with the Queen Anne Stakes and is now the fourth race on the card. It is also the race I have chosen to do a brief trends preview of.

Queen Anne Stakes

Arabian Gleam – Four-year-old that ran in the Lockinge last time augurs well but yet to prove himself over this mile and his other entries are over sprints which dampens enthusiasm.

Cesare – Obviously loves Ascot but had every chance in this last year and is now a six-year-old who have a poor record in this.

Haradasun – Caught the eye in the Lockinge when keeping on into sixth but not deserving of favourite slot with form figures of 22223300 – market leader also hasn’t obliged since 1998. Unproven on firmish ground.

Honoured Guest – Possibly not trained on and main task could be setting the pace.

Linngari – Stable respected in this but not with six-year-olds – none from that age group have won over the last 20 years.

Mount Nelson – Aidan O’Brien won this with a four-year-old two years ago and Mount Nelson caught the eye over 1m in France last time. Gave the impression further may suit though, and this faster 1m may not be ideal. If successful, would be the biggest-priced winner of this for a very long while.

Sageburg – Ticks in the right boxes and won the Prix d’Ispahan that fellow French four-year-old Valixir won before triumphing here in 2005. Step back to 1m on unproven fast ground will be new territory – sire won at this meeting on fast ground though.

Spirito Del Vento – Has failed in two Group Ones and another unproven on fast ground. Gives overall impression he will be outclassed.

Tariq – Excellent third in Lockinge and has the right profile being a four-year-old from that event. Handles the conditions and a slowly-run 1m could be in his favour.

Darjina – Held by Sageburg last time and fillies usually worth swerving in this – they last won in the mid-nineties.

Finsceal Beo – Back to form last time and handles conditions but has the filly negative to overcome.


Overall a trappy contest as several are unproven over the distance or on fast ground, plus it could turn into a crawl despite O’Brien looking to have a lone pacemaker. My three against the field are:
Sageburg – Haradasun – Tariq.


The two major betting handicaps of the week are the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday and the Wokingham on Saturday. Some of you may well be aware of the position at the head of the market in the former race as Luca Cumani’s Bankable currently trades around 2-1, giving the market a somewhat cramped look, unlike the Wokingham which is around 12-1 the field.
The Wokingham is a race that has been good to me over the years, as I’ve managed to land a few touches by picking the winner a year in advance, and there is a candidate that fits that profile this time around.
Last July at The Guardian I was meant to back Nick Littmoden’s Orpsie Boy when he scooted up over the Wokingham’s course and distance, but I ended up watching it win as I wasn’t sure the ground was firm enough for him. Anyway, he impressed me that day and I marked him down as a Wokingham type.
Since then, he has shown the type of form I like, including a gutsy fourth in the Portland at Doncaster in September – in the process proving he could ‘rumble’ in the big fields when it mattered.
My reading of Nick Littmoden’s approach since that time was to make sure Orpsie Boy earned a high enough mark to make the cut and opted to land a few easier all-weather events over the winter, instead of taking the chance of not winning during the spring in more competitive turf races. His latest outing at Wolverhampton in March saw him beat Fyodor, who went on to beat current Wokingham favourite, Intrepid Jack, at Haydock in May.
The positives are that Orpsie Boy loves a straight, galloping six furlongs on fast ground, goes very well fresh, and I personally think he has been prepared for this so the absence doesn’t bother me.
On the negative side, not many Wokingham winners arrive without a recent win, plus the yard aren’t in great form. However, I’m willing to overlook the trainer form as his string may come back to life this week and I’ve missed out on winners in the past because of this reason.
He is still entered for Saturday at the five-day stage and I’ve backed him at 33-1, a price he is still available at.

It was a good week for the Top Of The Form list of horses to follow last week – here are this week’s entries:

Choose Your Moment
Coleorton Choice (Thursday)
Colony (Thursday)
Dolcetto
Full Speed (Thursday)
Galactic Star
Jocheski
Karoush
Kidlat (Friday)
Otaared
Pacifism
Ready To Crown
Tazeez (Friday)
Tighnabruaich (Thursday)
Virtual (Thursday)