Newmarket

Apologies for the lack of blog action since my return from holiday but as mentioned earlier in the week, I picked up a bug – possibly mild food poisoning – on Monday and have been struggling this week. I’m still not 100% as it’s hung around – try eating Rich Tea biscuits for three days! – but normal service will be resumed early next week, including a list of updated Top Of The Form horses.
It’s a shame I fell ill, as the holiday freshened me up and I was looking forward to the Newmarket July Meeting, so it’s been mainly a watching brief with just a Placepot thrown in on Thursday. Annoyingly, I went out in the third leg in the handicap won by Jedediah, who I backed at Royal Ascot – hope some of you stuck with it – but I didn’t like his draw this time as I stated in the book that those drawn very low struggled. The trends from the book themselves have struggled somewhat too at Newmarket this week with several trendsbusters emerging, but without wanting to make excuses, the ideal profile for some races – Cherry Hinton, July Stakes, 1m2f Heritage Handicap – wasn’t easy to identify which is stated in the ‘winner’s profile’ section. But hey, that will happen over the course of a season and I’m confident the trends will again soon start working out – possibly at Newmarket today, which is where I’m going to do a brief trends preview of the July Cup below.

Finally, I did mention pre-holiday a John Smith’s Cup fancy I had my eyes on from months ago but the horse in question – Caravel trained by Sir Mark Prescott – won’t be making the cut. He reminds me of Pasternak who won the event in the nineties, but there might be another day for him.

JULY CUP

Assertive – No chance from high draw at Ascot, but possibly not at best on softish ground with form figures of 240450. Drawn low which is against recent trends, plus the pace looks to be middle to high in this year’s renewal.

Astronomer Royal – Another who has shown all his form on fast ground with just the lone fourth on soft, though drying ground will help. Did well from middle draw at Ascot but low draw here is a concern.

Benbaun – Would have to defy long-term trends from an age perspective as a seven-year-old – every winner bar one was aged three to five going back to 1980.

Diabolical – Hard to fancy after blowing out at Ascot and most winners of this finished in the first seven at least at the Royal meeting.

Les Arcs – The 2006 victor will do well to become the first dual winner since the late 1950’s.

Marchand D’Or – The July Cup has been scooped from abroad twice since 1996 and his sixth from a poor draw in the Golden Jubilee behind Kingsgate Native at Ascot reads well. He was also drawn poorly in stall 1 when fourth in this last year and the softer ground will be more to his liking this time around.

Off The Record – Should help set the pace down the middle but not good enough to win.

Prime Defender – Has been comfortably held in lesser sprints this term and poor draw in stall 3.

US Ranger – Aidan O’Brien has won it twice with horses dropping in trip and this colt looked as though he could take a good sprint when fourth from bad draw at York. Fifth in Golden Jubilee not bad effort on faster ground than ideal – all wins on good ot softer – so good chance here from a decent draw.

Utmost Respect – Fresh in the mind after winning the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle but no winner of that event followed up in the last 12 years including four unplaced in the July Cup.

War Artist – Second in Golden Jubilee and every chance again but had things to suit that day and may not confirm form with others, plus Jubilee seconds don’t have a great record subsequently.

Zidane – Will have to defy the age trend as a six-year-old and has looked held in Group company.

Fat Boy – Likes to dominate in smaller fields and was held in the 17-runner Golden Jubilee, taking his form-figures in fields of 11 or more runners to 6720.

Kingsgate Native – Bids to become the second winner of the Golden Jubilee since Owington in 1994 to follow up in the July Cup and looks to hold a solid chance. The stats are against him, though, and overall subsequent record of Jubilee winners is poor.

Sir Gerry – Yard won it four years ago with Frizzante and his third to Kingsgate Native gives him every chance as he came from further back than the first two that day.

SHORT-LIST: Marchand D’Or – Sir Gerry - US Ranger