Performance ratings & TOTF

Performance ratings

PRIDE STAKES – Crystal Capella 65

DARLEY STAKES – Charlie Farnsbarns 77

CHALLENGE STAKES – Stimulation 78

DEWHURST STAKES – Intense Focus 80

CHAMPION STAKES – New Approach 90

CESAREWITCH – Caracciola 67

ROCKFEL STAKES – Lahaleeb 70

JOCKEY CLUB CUP – Veracity 75

There were some interesting performances at the Champions Day fixture, including New Approach’s demolition job in the Champion Stakes. Just a shame we won’t get to see him in action as a four-year-old with a career at stud proving too tempting.
I was hoping for a more unexposed winner of the Rockfel Stakes, as it has been such a terrific pointer for the Classics, and though Lahaleeb was awarded a marginal above-par rating, she looked a touch exposed beforehand and the bookies don’t seem impressed.
Intense Focus also had the profile of one that looked exposed in the Dewhurst but it’s interesting to note this colt’s form-figures on fast ground (121), compared to that on good or softer (000030). Fast ground could make him value if lining up for next year’s Guineas should he flop on easier ground in the spring.

I hope some of you have made use of the performance ratings throughout the Flat season, along with following the placed runners from events in the book that are awarded three, four or five stars. Taking a moment to review the big races in search of future winners can pay dividends as demonstrated by Julio, who left a comment on the last blog regarding the Ebor winner All The Good (called the Newburgh Handicap this year). Godolphin’s winner was awarded an above-par rating at Newbury in a ‘four-star race’ before landing the Caulfield Cup at Flemington on Saturday at whopping odds. Well done Julio.

It’s not always easy to find time to review racing but an hour a week can pay dividends, especially if you have access to the internet and free alert services that notify you of when a horse you may be following is entered.

The future angle after each big race is one of the main reasons I chose to do the books, as punters can often be in a hurry to get the next bet down without bothering to take stock of the last one and looking ahead.

Going back to the Caulfield Cup, I managed to back Mad Rush for the Melbourne Cup at 16-1 and was encouraged by a storming fourth under a more than less aggressive ride. The reasoning was that he was an above-par winner of the Old Newton Cup in which Cumani’s winners have done well subsequently.
Not that I’m counting my chickens just yet with my ante-post record this year – Moonstone 50-1 for the Oaks and Prince Kalamoun 33-1 for the Cambridgeshire!

I occasionally mention horses that catch my eye, like Jedediah in the summer, and two made the Myers’ list to follow over the weekend. There’s no story behind either, other than they were given kind races and look lined up for a bigger prize.

Isn't That Lucky (Kempton on Sunday)
Leo’s Lucky Star (Cheltenham on Friday)

A jockey that also made the mental notebook was apprentice Jamie Kyne, who looks well worth his 7lb claim. He has already ridden several winners and looked polished when runner-up on Dig Deep at Pontefract on Monday.
He will be worth following if set for an all-weather season.



TOP OF THE FORM

As mentioned in previous weeks, the Top 20 is finding its feet at present with some of the Flat form turning mouldy. Each week I check each race to adjust the ratings and see how may winners emerged from the races but it has been very quiet of late. The giveaway is a weak base rating – stands at –1 this week – but I’m confident things will improve once the jumps and all-weather races begin to filter through, so keep the faith.
I did a dummy three-month trial with Top Of The Form from January to March prior to its debut in the Racing and Football Outlook back in April, and was impressed with the results over jumps so its all to look forward to once the winter season gets underway.

Here are this week’s entries from Tuesday October 21 onwards, again, there aren't even many entries which is a sign.

Al Gillani – The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.

Artzola – Still early days for this Wolverhampton handicap from Sep 12 but two winners have already emerged and Artzola caught the eye running on into fifth.

Bold Argument – Took care of three subsequent winners at Salisbury.

Elijah Pepper – Form of Pontefract victory has worked out and trainer David Barron knows how to place progressive sprinters.

Fanditha – Salisbury fillies’ maiden win looks decent with the second and third obliging, and she deserves another chance on better ground after finding the Goffs Million on soft ground too much.

Hawk Mountain – This lightly raced three-year-old has improved with each run, staying on well at Redcar in front of two future victors. Ran a cracker back in trip at Pontefract and can win back over 1m6f+.

Hazzard County - Stayed on into third at Great Leighs and deserves to land one after some consistent efforts.

Nehaam - Had two future victors back in second and fourth at Newmarket. The winner impressed in coming away in the final furlong and his trainer mentioned he could run in a big sales race back here later this month.

Nizhoni Dancer (Tuesday) – Leicester nursery win looks good after the placed runners scored, and she is capable of defying a higher mark.

Pearl Of Manacor – Excellent third in Newbury maiden, which has churned out five subsequent winners.

Prospect Court - Sixth to Angus Newz was good form and is one to store away possibly for the autumn as he loves the mud and has slipped to a winning mark.

San Jose City (Friday) – Second at Great Leighs is good form. Didn’t enjoy the Fibresand at Southwell on Sunday but is one to note back on Polytrack.

Too Much Trouble – Sandown victory has worked out well, producing a future Listed winner, and could be capable of stepping up in class.

Triple Dream (Wednesday, Thursday) - Caught the eye making late gains in eighth at Great Leighs.

Twisted - Ran well in fifth at Newmarket, making late headway, and is capable of picking up a maiden before the end of the season.

Wasan – Took a classy handicap at Doncaster that has been boosted, and this Pivotal colt will enjoy the autumn mud.

Wreningham - The form from the first three home of this Great Leighs maiden has worked out well, as they have all complimented each other.


There will be more from me later this week.